As the 2024-25 Premier League season approaches, Manchester City, under Pep Guardiola, once again enters as the bookmakers’ favorite to clinch the title. This has been a familiar story since Guardiola’s arrival in 2016. Even during his first season, when City finished 15 points behind Chelsea, they were still the odds-on favorites. Over the past eight seasons, City has dominated, winning the league six times. But as the new season looms, there’s a growing sense that the competition is closing in.
Manchester City’s Dominance and the Threat of Regression
Manchester City’s dominance under Guardiola is undeniable, with a 75% win rate in the Premier League during his tenure. However, last season’s performance, while still impressive, showed signs of potential vulnerability. City finished with 91 points and a +58 goal differential, marks that are the fifth and fourth worst in Guardiola’s era. While these numbers are better than the average Premier League champion, they fall short of City’s usual standards. If City maintains this level of play, they could be more beatable than in previous seasons.
The Data Predicts Manchester City Could Struggle in 2024-25
Looking deeper into the stats, there are indicators that Manchester City might regress this season. Key players like Rodri, Phil Foden, and Éderson may not be able to replicate their exceptional performances from last season. Rodri, who played the most minutes for City, is nearing the end of his peak years, and City has struggled when he’s off the pitch. Foden, who outperformed his Expected Goals (xG) by 8.7 goals last season, is likely to see a drop in his goal tally unless he increases his shot quality. Additionally, City’s roster is aging, with several key players like Kevin De Bruyne, Kyle Walker, and Bernardo Silva reaching or surpassing their 30s. This aging squad could face a sudden drop in performance, similar to what happened with Liverpool in the 2022-23 season.
Arsenal and Liverpool: The Rising Contenders
Unlike previous seasons, Manchester City isn’t just facing one strong rival—they’re up against two: Arsenal and Liverpool. In Guardiola’s previous league victories, City was, on average, 19.6 points ahead of the third-place team. However, last season, Liverpool finished just nine points behind City, with a significantly smaller gap between the first and third teams. This suggests that the competition is fiercer, and City’s margin for error is smaller.
Arsenal’s Edge: Last Season’s Underlying Performance
Interestingly, despite City winning the league, data suggests Arsenal might have been the better team last season. When adjusting for a blend of xG and actual goals (a predictive metric for future performance), Arsenal came out on top. This marks the first time in the Guardiola era that City hasn’t led the league in this key metric. If last season’s underlying performance is any indication, Arsenal could be the slight favorites to win the title this year.
Arsenal and Liverpool’s Potential for Improvement
Both Arsenal and Liverpool have significant room for improvement this season. Arsenal, in particular, has a young squad with players like Bukayo Saka, William Saliba, and Gabriel Martinelli expected to get even better. Saka has improved his non-penalty xG and expected goals assisted (xA) every season, and this could be the year he becomes an elite goal scorer. Saliba, already one of the best center-backs, could dominate in the air, while Martinelli is primed for a bounce-back season after a disappointing 2023-24 campaign.
Liverpool also boasts a roster of emerging talents like Darwin Núñez and Dominik Szoboszlai, who could break out this season. The team is also expected to have fewer injuries, which plagued them last year, making them a formidable contender.
The Transfer Market and Squad Depth
Arsenal has strengthened its squad by adding young talents like Jurriën Timber and Riccardo Calafiori, who will provide more defensive options and help address last season’s issues at left-back. Liverpool, under new management by Arne Slot, is also looking to bolster its lineup, particularly in the defensive midfield position.
Manchester City, on the other hand, has seen key departures like Julián Álvarez, and while they have resources to bring in new players, the impact of these changes remains to be seen.
Conclusion: A Tight Race for the Title
While Manchester City remains the favorite to win the Premier League, their dominance is being challenged. With Arsenal and Liverpool both on the rise, the 2024-25 season could see a shift in power. Given City’s potential for regression and the improvement of their rivals, the title race is more open than it has been in years. For those betting on the outcome, it might be wise to consider Arsenal or Liverpool as serious contenders for the crown.
For more insights and updates on the Premier League, stay tuned to our website.
Discover more from Prime Football
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
